Help with alternate history 1936-1960

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echoco
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Help with alternate history 1936-1960

Post by echoco »

Hi, I’m trying to write an alternate history (for fun) between 1936-1960 that’s quite close to actual events but with a few twist on things and a complete redirection on others BUT I realized I’m not schizophrenic enough to role-play as multiple nations. Sooooo I’m hoping a few of you might want to spitball some ideas. Here’s my initial idea

Spain
I really want to play with the idea that WWII is an escalation of the Spanish Civil War (so it doesn't end in 1939) with each nation committing troops/aircraft/ship and escalating the conflict.

Italy
Not much here, I know very little about Italy. Generally they’ll be bogged down committing more troops/aircraft to Spain so might not be move into N. Africa.

Russia
Heavily committed to Spain and in almost full mobilization to expand that war when Germany attacked.

Britain
Fighting a war on 3 fronts, France/Belgium, Spain and N. Africa (not sure if this will happen considering Italy initiated it)

Germany
Attacked Poland as happened in 1939 but with commitment in Spain the blitzkrieg campaign was a week behind what actually happened. Made the Luftwaffe and Hitler more cautious.

China
Unchanged so far, maybe more weapons and support from America.

America
Roosevelt had been playing towards and building the Navy for war with Japan and with economic pressures, doesn’t play well with public who doesn’t want to go to war, so he’s loosing support. Resistance to getting involved in the European war, a lot less freedom for Roosevelt.

Japan
Pretty much the same series of events up to Singapore, except maybe the fleet sent to attack Pearl Harbor got delayed a day and attacked after the declaration of war, citing retaliation, resulting in American support for war being far from unanimous. Harder fight in China but in return more experience fighting American aircraft.


Updated 23 May 2011

1936-1939
Most nations increases support to their side of the SCW, culminating in sending expeditionary forces mostly from Germany and Russia.

Japan invades China, Manchuria and Russia.

France captures the Rhineland as a retaliation for Germany reoccupying the demilitarized zone in 1936 and fearing being bracketed by Nationalism if the nationalist won in SCW.

1940
Germany counter attacks French forces and drove to Paris. Surrounding countries including Poland, Denmark, Norway, Netherlands and Belgium were also attacked German army expands outward. After France surrendered, large portion of the army is sent to reinforce it's forces in Spain.
Germany turns attention to Spain and Gibraltar Straight.
U boats begin operating a around the British Isles and North Sea.

Russia sends troops and supplies to Spain through Ukraine and the Mediterranean.
Still neutral in Europe.

Britain
Declares war on Germany and Italy and rapidly advance on Libya and other Italian N. African colonies as understrength Italian units fight delaying actions. Portion of British and French forces in France retreating towards Spain the rest being captured at Dunkirk.
Royal Navy blockades Spanish ports of Nationalist supplies.

Italy
Able to redirect (slowly) forces destined for Spain to N. Africa thanks to German forces from France. Inspected some of the captured French fleet but were sunk by the Royal Navy before they could be pressed into Italian service.

Japan continues the attack on Russia, expecting Russia to be distracted by the latest development in Europe.

America remain neutral, Along with Britain and France imposes heavy economic pressure and halt export of raw material to Japan. Introduce Lend-Lease, providing surplus equipment to the Allies in Europe and Chinese forces fighting the Japanese.
Last edited by echoco on Mon May 23, 2011 3:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Help with alternate history 1936-1960

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Remember that Italy had a colony in Libya. If England and Italy end up opposing each other, England would almost certainly swipe Libya (as well as Italian East Africa, Somaliland, and possibliy liberating Ethiopia) if it had the chance. If Germany is likewise bogged down or unwilling to commit the Afrika Korps, then Britain could accomplish that using Indians and ANZACS.

Quite frankly, I would suspect that once the major nations were openly involved in conflict, Spain would devolve into a sideshow, UNLESS France fell pretty much as quickly as it did historically - then the fact that Spain was a theater of conflict would enhance its role as a battlefield if only because Germany would want to use Spain to get access to Gibraltar and close the Med, which would make any British conquest of Libya irrelevant, etc., etc., etc.
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Re: Help with alternate history 1936-1960

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Charles Lewis wrote:Germany would want to use Spain to get access to Gibraltar and close the Med, which would make any British conquest of Libya irrelevant,
Very interesting. Once Germany overran France and could reinforce their force in Spain directly it'll give opportunity for earlier direct conflict with the Russians.

I'm assuming Russia would be fully involved in Spain considering the amount of hardware and personnel support they sent.
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Re: Help with alternate history 1936-1960

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Again, if there is open conflict between Germany and Russian, the situation changes. Russia would have to ship troops and supplies to Spain, and those shipments would be vulnerable to attack by plane or u-boat. Think about how hard it was to get lend-lease convoys to Russia escorted by US and British ships. Imagine Russia, with its much weaker and smaller navy trying to fend off wolfpacks on its own. Rather than that, they would engage Germany directly through Poland.

The only way Spain really works as a major theater of war is if the war is fought by proxy; i.e. the major powers are still ostensibly neutral but the flow of supplies, equipment and volunteers steadily grows. Remember that the major powers are all closer to each other, generally, than they are to Spain.
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Re: Help with alternate history 1936-1960

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How's this?

1936-1939
Most nations increases support to their side of the SCW, culminating in sending expeditionary forces mostly from Germany and Russia.

1940
Germany invades Denmark, Norway, Netherlands, Belgium and France.
After France surrendered, large portion is sent to reinforce it's forces in Spain.
Luftwaffe - would they close Gibraltar or Battle of Britain?

Russia invades Poland, sends troops and supplies to Spain through Ukraine and the Mediterranean.
Still neutral.

Britain seize Libya and other Italian N. African colonies but with portion of forces in France retreating towards Spain the rest being captured at Dunkirk.
Blockades Spanish ports of Nationalist supplies.

Italy
try to battle the RN, blockade Russian shipment to Spain and retake her colonies all at once or pull out of Spain and retake colonies?
It would help if they could use the captures French navy.

Japan and America - neutral
what would it take for lend-lease to be restricted?
If possible to restrict lend-lease then u-boats might operate around Britain and Meds and try to cancel out the RN advantage.
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Re: Help with alternate history 1936-1960

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Some suggested tweaks: you mentioned in the original email that Germany smooshed Poland as expected, but that it took a week longer. Part of the secret agreement between Germany and the Soviet Union in their non-aggression treaty was the partition of Poland. If that stands, then the Soviet won't invade Poland later as they already have a chunk of it, and they now share a border with Germany, so just delete that reference.

The Battle of Britain occurred not so much because Hitler thought an invasion of Britain was feasible but more as a show of force to get Churchill to negotiate a peace. Had the Luftwaffe stuck to bombing the airfields and bringing Fighter Command to its knees, it might have worked...but that's a different alt-history. ;) In this case, with a wider conflict already underway, fighting in Spain represents a much greater threat; I suspect the reasoning would go along the lines of 'once Gibraltar is German, and the Med is closed, we can turn our attention to Britain proper.'

So my line of reasoning in your scenario would be that as Germany turns her main focus to resolving the fighting in Spain, that brings German (and Italian) troops into direct conflict with Soviet "advisors" and volunteers. It's a short rattle of the saber from there to outright conflict with the Soviet Union. That still leaves room for Barbarrosa but makes it an operational surprise (Germany is going to attack but when?) instead of the strategic surprise it was.

Lend-Lease, on the other hand, becomes problematic. I suspect Roosevelt would still force something on Congress to support the British, who are fighting the good fight (They went to over German aggression against Poland), and in 1940, still stand alone. The question is whether Congress and Roosevelt would be inclined to help the Soviet Union once directly involved given its role in the SCW conflagration that really started the whole thing.

Also, the conflict between Japan and the US is generally considered to be inevitable. Japan's hunger for resources was sending it into direct conflict with the US over what both considered to be their area of influence. Hitler did everyone a favor by declaring war on the US after Pearl Harbor. Had he not done that, it is very questionable whether Roosevelt could have gotten a declaration of war on Germany through Congress when we already had a war with Japan.

Given the altered structure of the conflict, it's not unreasonable to see a three-sided conflict (US/UK vs Germany/Italy/Japan vs USSR) in place of the ostensibly two-sided conflict (Axis vs Allies) that really happened. Under those circumstances, Lend-Lease to Russia would not be automatic. It would also be possible to have two separate hemispheric wars going on: Asia - Japan vs USA and the Commonwealth and Europe: Germany and Italy vs the UK and USSR(but lacking cooperation).

That aspect, however, is a year or more away, but just something to think about.

These are all just my opinions, of course. That and $1 gets you a Coke at McDonalds. ;)
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Re: Help with alternate history 1936-1960

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Great reply there

I confused myself with Poland :oops: I wonder how I could clean this up
in my last post I forgot Poland was the reason war was declared on Germany, I wanted either Germany or Russian to invade but not both, they are helping the opposite sides of the SCW so they probably wouldn't come to the agreement to work together. but this makes Russia a more attractive ally having no part in Poland. Russia also seem to have no gain in invading Poland except per the agreement they would get to split Europe with Germany.

I agree about the battle of britain
Would a split Luftwaffe effort between containing the RAF and Bombing Command and supporting operations in Spain be logical to you?
Bombing Command probably started flying missions as soon as fighting in France got under way.

As it is, it looks like it's going to be mostly between Germany and Russia with Britain and her allies isolated to N. Africa. With the German blitzkrieg Spain should be under German hands by end of 1940 even with heavy support from Russia. I'm thinking Germany just carry on the momentum from France.
Would Russia be bitter enough to launch a reverse Barbarossa on Germany? or
would Germany still be the attacker? If Germany is going to attack she'll have to wait until Spanish campaign is closed and that'll take some time to deal with RAF and bomber command raids.

I'm stump on Lend-Lease, I know Roosevelt really pushed for it but I don't know much more than that. Say lend-lease did go ahead but with resistance and is limited to selling of surplus equipment (4 stackers, P-36s, older tanks?) would this be reasonable or too much restriction? It might mean that some ship classes maybe the P-51 and others never get built.

With Japan I'm thinking that if during the invasion of Manchuria and Russia (another thing I forgot to put in) Japan didn't halt after their first defeat but figured that if they could beat Russia once they could do it again and kept going it might postpone the Pacific war for a few years? Those few years might result in a bit more rugged industry and naval strength? but risk a more prepared Commonwealth and America and weaker IJA? and increases likelihood of Japan signing the tripartite pact.
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Re: Help with alternate history 1936-1960

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1941
Italy
Struggling to protect it's supply line to it's army in N. Africa and intercept British convoys. Lack of supplies led to Italy asking German for help in N.Africa.

Germany sends the Afrika Korps to help Italy, rapid advance initially but lost moment tum as supplies ran low.
Consolidates it's hold on France and Spain. Luftwaffe begins flying missions to suppress the RAF's bombing of Germany. Heavily mined Gibraltar Straight.

Britain
Bomber command took heavy loss in daylight bombing and switch to night time and fighter command conducting raids into France.
Momentum in N. Africa picks up as Italian forces surrenders in large number because of lack of supplies but was then quickly pushed back by the Afrika Korps and it's stretched supply line came under Luftwaffe attack.
Attack on Taranto was a partial success, several aircraft got lost and losses from anti-aircraft fire were heavier in the second wave, only a few destroyers sank and a battleship damaged, almost all aircraft were lost. Pressure from German U boats and lack of escorts forces ships to be grouped into larger convoys.

Russia
Ships it's undesirable SCW veterans to the Mongolian front to stall the Japanese, recapturing large amount of territory. Strengthening it's forces and using Poland as a buffer against Germany.

China
Exploiting Russian's advance South, Chinese launched a New Year offensive but with disappointing results. With increased support from America, the Flying Tigers dominates East and Southern of China.

Japan
Heavy casualty forces Japan to look elsewhere for resource.

America
To by-pass the restriction on lend-lease the Army Air Forces took delivery of the P-51s and declared P-39 and 40s surplus and supplied them to the Britain and China. Ship yards and some aircraft companies took advantage of a loophole and put new ships and aircraft up for lease, these were snapped up by Brazilian, British and Commonwealth companies.
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Re: Help with alternate history 1936-1960

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Would the British navy be able to project power in the Med with Gibraltar in German hands..

There would be no friendly air cover in the western Med, and if Malta falls, non in the Central med.. Allowing the Axis to focus on the Eastern Med. So the Italian supply should be safer than historical..
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Re: Help with alternate history 1936-1960

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Option for the start..
Assume SCW drags on, but Britain and France go to war with Germany over Czech division ?
or Britian and France go to war over the re-militarization of the Ruhr.
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Re: Help with alternate history 1936-1960

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thanks mriddle
mriddle wrote:There would be no friendly air cover in the western Med, and if Malta falls, non in the Central med.. Allowing the Axis to focus on the Eastern Med. So the Italian supply should be safer than historical..
I've been too focused on helping Italian and German out in N. Africa and didn't think of the British side. What would you propose for a more balanced (dare I say realistic? hahaha) setup?
mriddle wrote:Option for the start..
Assume SCW drags on, but Britain and France go to war with Germany over Czech division ?
or Britian and France go to war over the re-militarization of the Ruhr.
I am hating this, because I like the going to war over of re-militarization, would make sense (at least to me) with German involvement on the opposite side in the SCW.
How do you think the events would run in this case, would Germany still invade Poland now that it's in a big war, if not then would the Russians take Poland and what motivation?
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Re: Help with alternate history 1936-1960

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So what about France wants to get involved in SCW, suffers a couple of set backs and then Germany to protect their Spanish proxies attack France in a surprise attack. France falls quickly. German troops then begin to liberate their Spanish proxies, Britian seeing disaster if Germany gains Spain, lands BEF in Spain to help the other side

USSR "forces" Poland to allow Soviet troops passage through to attack Germany. Germany is now in a two front war and has no assets to lend Italy, GB is fixated on Spain/Gibraltar , so not many assets are available in North Africa.

Japan may be able to grab France and netherland Pacific assets this early with less reaction from the US
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Re: Help with alternate history 1936-1960

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echoco wrote:I am hating this
mriddle wrote: I think I mis communicated that I didn't like your suggestion what I meant was I hate the fact that I like your idea about the war triggered by re-militarization of the Ruhr and it appear to throw off the time line so far.
mriddle wrote:So what about France wants to get involved in SCW, suffers a couple of set backs and then Germany to protect their Spanish proxies attack France in a surprise attack. France falls quickly. German troops then begin to liberate their Spanish proxies, Britian seeing disaster if Germany gains Spain, lands BEF in Spain to help the other side

USSR "forces" Poland to allow Soviet troops passage through to attack Germany. Germany is now in a two front war and has no assets to lend Italy, GB is fixated on Spain/Gibraltar , so not many assets are available in North Africa.
I think these would make the war too unwinnable for Germany early on, fighting against both Britain and Russia without the extra year of military build up.

I could incorporate, 1939 France captures the Rhineland as a retaliation for Germany reoccupying the demilitarized zone in 1936 and fearing being bracketed by Nationalism if the nationalist won in SCW, Germany counter attacks and drove all the way to Paris. Surrounding countries were attacked indiscriminately as German army exploded outward.
While Poland was occupied by Russia under the pretense of protection from German attack which set up some bad blood with the British.

Japan was still full on in China and Manchuria at this time so would probably not have the resource to capture French and Dutch, unless they used Siam to capture French Indochina.
Pretty interesting this because in reality something very near this did happen, but they were pretty devious playing both sides during WWII.
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Re: Help with alternate history 1936-1960

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I'm still mulling over 1941
mriddle wrote:Would the British navy be able to project power in the Med with Gibraltar in German hands..

There would be no friendly air cover in the western Med, and if Malta falls, non in the Central med.. Allowing the Axis to focus on the Eastern Med. So the Italian supply should be safer than historical..
I had a thought about this but I figure the British navy would do ok, most of the home fleet except the escorts weren't being used much, only the occasional German surface raiders. They had a few aircraft carriers (7 in the Atlantic) and if they had transfered more modern battleships to the Meds they'll still keep pressure on the Italians.

I read somewhere that the Meds wasn't easy on submarines because of the shallower water, and clear weather?

Maybe Churchill would do an amphibious landing on Portugal and recapture Gibraltar if things got hard in N. Africa?
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Re: Help with alternate history 1936-1960

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I think these would make the war too unwinnable for Germany early on, fighting against both Britain and Russia without the extra year of military build up.
I am not so sure.. remember Russia would way extended.. attacking an unbroken German army.. the result might be closer to WWI where the Russian attacked, got destroyed several times..

Germanay has interior lines, to rail troops east and west..

Britian is also a year less building up (two big issues here is spitfire deployment, the spits barely were in deployment in Summer of 40.. so the battle of britian (if one) would Me109s vs Hurricanes.. (Germany gets fewer Me109s .. but ..) and four engine bomber development is a year less) so Britian has problems too..

Remember that the phony war gave Britian time to put the BEF ashore.. France might fall even faster in this scenario.. most of its army in spain, attacked in the back by Germany ?.. Does Britian even declare war ? This is over the silly SCW.. does Britian go to war in un-prepared state against Germany and Italy after they crushed the French..
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