Well, after literally walking the floor and mulling all of this over in my mind, I think the idea of having Morale be a fixed stat on roughly a 0-10 scale would work. It would be apportioned something like this:
0 or less: Rebellion
6-10: Good Order
This gives an equal spread between Unrest and Good Order, and allows Morale to experience the precipitous drops to make deep Rebellions possible.
For Propaganda missions (Insurgency/Counter-Insurgency), I think nimrodd's numbers would work -- either Census / 3 or Census / 2, depending on how the numbers end up working out for either of them.
As for Morale Checks, they are done like Intel missions to a degree, and under a fixed-value Morale system the calculation would be equal to Morale / (10 + Difficulty). Therefore a colony with maxed out Morale would have the best chance of "passing" a Morale Check, and passing always provides the best result for that check, while failing has the worst effects.
As with the new Intel missions (and Detection, too), each Morale Check will have four possible results: Major Success, Minor Success, Minor Failure, and Major Failure. This allows us to have a greater variance, providing for extreme results as well as more moderate ones, too.
Using the rough 0-10 scale should appease those that would like a fixed Morale scale to make cross-referencing Morale easier, and it also eliminates the confusion related with moving Census and dealing with the Morale fallout (if there is the desire for there to be any repercussions, they can take the form of a Morale Check).
Check here for updates and discussion about the new edition of the Victory by Any Means Campaign System.
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